Beware: Clues are Only Possibilities

Although I have provided several clues that led me to believe that we are moving into chaotic times, you shouldn't believe this simply based upon clues and neither do I. Clues lead to possibilities not certainties. Just because you find a resonate pattern to organize your thoughts does not mean that you have it right. You need evidence and the more evidence you have the more you can believe you are on the right track.

So, how do you proceed? Step One is, of course, recognizing patterns. If you are not good at recognizing patterns, you will have to rely on patterns that other people have recognized. But, given that you have a pattern to work with, there are some additional steps you can take in both discovery and validation.

An initial validation step is needed to make sure the pattern is valid. For example, let's say that you become aware of the economic pattern that the top 1% of the wealthy in the United States control the majority of the wealth. The first question you have to ask is - is this really true?

There have certainly been a lot of news stories claiming this so you should read and listen a little more critically as news stories are often spun based upon the beliefs and worldview of the journalist or newspaper. I don't mean to suggest that you are being misled. I merely mean to point out that there is no objective view of a social phenomenon and any analysis represents a particular interpretation. 

For discovery purposes, ask if this pattern is occurring elsewhere.  So, let's say, for example, that you become aware of the economic pattern that the top 1% of the wealthy in the United States control the majority of the wealth. Is this occurring in other areas as well?  Are the top 1% of researchers or artists producing the majority of the research or art? Are the top 1% of politically active families producing the majority of the politicians?The more places you can find the pattern, the more useful the pattern might be.

You can try explaining the pattern to other people. Some will reject it simply because it is not what they think. If this is the case, you should be polite but not waste a lot of time with them. Some will find legitimate flaws in what you have said and will express them. You need to reconcile these flaws with what you believe to be true about the pattern. If you cannot then the pattern may be flaws. You might be able to adjust it or fix it. But that will require some work. If the work isn't worth it, you should drop it. If you do manage to reconcile the flaws, you have probably gained, along the way, greater insight into the pattern and the phenomenon it represents.

Finally, you need to make a sincere attempt to disprove what you believe about the pattern. Ask yourself what could be true that would disprove the pattern or what thing might happen in the future to dispute it. As time goes by, if you are sincerely trying to find evidence that the pattern does not work and you fail to, it is probably a pretty good pattern.

What To Do in Chaotic Times

Let us assume for the moment that I am on to something with this dichotomy I have identified with normal times and chaotic times. This is not a forgone conclusion, but I will come back to that later.

How do you behave differently to be successful in chaotic times? As it turns out, the answer is quite simple, at least superficially. In normal times, you set goals, make plans, and pursue your goals. In chaotic times you cannot set goals and make plans because things are in a state of flux. This, after all, is what got me to thinking about this initially. Instead of setting goals, you have to look for opportunities. You may not know what is going to happen. But, when suitable opportunities arise, you must be prepared to take advantage of them.

How do you prepare yourself to take advantage of opportunities in chaotic times? This is a little trickier but still not that difficult.

Figure out, in general, what you are good at.

Figure out what kinds of opportunities might arise that would need the things you are good at.

Shore up your strengths so you are ready to take advantage of opportunities. This simply means that you should work on getting better at the things you are good at.

Make sure your are psychologically ready to look for opportunities.You need to be open to new things or things that do not look exactly like what you were expecting. You don't want to pass up a good opportunity just because you did not recognize it.

Make sure you position yourself to know about the right kinds of opportunities as they arise. This involves networking and keeping up with sources that are likely to provide information that you need.

Finally, you need to be flexible. If you make mistakes, learn from them. If you got something wrong be prepared to make adjustments to get it right. Don't be afraid to take chances or experiment.

Does this mean you should quit your job and wait for opportunities?  No, you need to sustain yourself until something good comes along. However, you have time to invest in sustaining yourself and time to invest in your future. The time you invest in your future should be directed at preparing yourself to take advantage of opportunities.

Clue Four: Steppenwolf

These clues are coming from all over the place. But when patterns come together, it is because the pieces of the puzzle resonate with things that you might not even notice otherwise. That is what makes them clues. And I would also emphasize that they are clues because they are useful patterns for organizing your thinking about nagging hunches and intuitions. They are not messages  from beyond in some weird mystical way. Well, let me take that back. I suppose they are messages from beyond in some weird mystical way. Just not the weird mystical way that most people might think of them.

In this case, however, there was a connection. The Mad Men epiphany got me to thinking about the turbulence of the 1960's which brought to mind a novel by Herman Hesse which was very popular at the time. The novel was entitled Steppenwolf and the name was popularized by a rock band who adopted the name. The novel was actually published in 1927 and republished in the 1960's due to its popularity at the time. And, surprisingly, it was republished again just a few years ago.

The main character in Steppenwolf was an individual caught between cultures who did not belong to either. He came to represent people caught between two cultures in the case of cultural change. Any culture, according to Hesse, has good things and bad things about it. But, on the balance, the good things out weight the bad. So, for anyone living in a given culture, life is generally tolerable. However, for people caught between cultures, life can be brutal. Consider, for example, a modern person transported back to Medieval Europe. Life would be horrible. However, if you took someone from Medieval Europe and transported them to the modern age, life would be equally as horrible.

People in the 1920's were undergoing substantial cultural change in a Post WWI environment, with prohibition, bath tub gin, flappers and a run away stock market. They were caught between the dying world order of the previous century and the nascent new order which would take a while to form. In the 1960's the Baby Boomers saw massive cultural change as well, which is why the book became so popular again. It is interesting to note that if you add 40 years to 1927 you get 1967. And if you add another 40 years you get 2007. All at the brink of impending massive social change. I don't want to make too much of this. But, it is an interesting pattern.

Nonetheless, this notion of transition between cultural norms gave further credibility to the idea that was brewing in the back of my mind. It suggested that we might be in chaotic times because we were at the brink of another wave of massive social change which has yet to take form. And we might be able to get some insights by looking back to the 1920's and 1960's.

Clue Three: Mad Men

I was watching Morning Joe (a news commentary show on MS NBC) one morning a few months ago and they had a guest on who was the script writer for the very popular TV show Mad Men. The discussion, around the table, was about the early 1960's era and why that time period resonated so much with audiences today. As the discussion developed examples started popping up of instances they could remember of people who were part of the Mad Men era that could not deal with the changes that would occur later in the decade. I think it was Joe Scarborough who said that his father liked the early Beatles but by the time Rubber Soul came out he no longer understood was was happening. When he said that, the wheels began turning.

The transition from Mad Men to Woodstock was a period of major cultural upheaval in this country and many others as well. For most Baby Boomers it represented the defining moments of their lives. For the sake of simplicity I am going to reduce this to a larger pattern and that is - the old giving way to the new. In this case the Mad Men represented the old culture and Woodstock represented the new.

Now we are approaching a similar transition only the Baby Boomers represent the old and the rising Millenials represent the new. I believe that the show resonates with Baby Boomers because they subconsciously see themselves in Mad Men - people riding high in a belief system that is about to crash. I think it also resonates with Millenials but for a different reason. For the Millenials it is a reminder that their day will come.

Going back, for a moment to this idea of normal times vs chaotic times we can see the pattern once again. When the old way is the default world view we have normal times. When the new replaces the old we have chaotic times. When the new becomes the default world view we have normal times again.