Beware: Clues are Only Possibilities

Although I have provided several clues that led me to believe that we are moving into chaotic times, you shouldn't believe this simply based upon clues and neither do I. Clues lead to possibilities not certainties. Just because you find a resonate pattern to organize your thoughts does not mean that you have it right. You need evidence and the more evidence you have the more you can believe you are on the right track.

So, how do you proceed? Step One is, of course, recognizing patterns. If you are not good at recognizing patterns, you will have to rely on patterns that other people have recognized. But, given that you have a pattern to work with, there are some additional steps you can take in both discovery and validation.

An initial validation step is needed to make sure the pattern is valid. For example, let's say that you become aware of the economic pattern that the top 1% of the wealthy in the United States control the majority of the wealth. The first question you have to ask is - is this really true?

There have certainly been a lot of news stories claiming this so you should read and listen a little more critically as news stories are often spun based upon the beliefs and worldview of the journalist or newspaper. I don't mean to suggest that you are being misled. I merely mean to point out that there is no objective view of a social phenomenon and any analysis represents a particular interpretation. 

For discovery purposes, ask if this pattern is occurring elsewhere.  So, let's say, for example, that you become aware of the economic pattern that the top 1% of the wealthy in the United States control the majority of the wealth. Is this occurring in other areas as well?  Are the top 1% of researchers or artists producing the majority of the research or art? Are the top 1% of politically active families producing the majority of the politicians?The more places you can find the pattern, the more useful the pattern might be.

You can try explaining the pattern to other people. Some will reject it simply because it is not what they think. If this is the case, you should be polite but not waste a lot of time with them. Some will find legitimate flaws in what you have said and will express them. You need to reconcile these flaws with what you believe to be true about the pattern. If you cannot then the pattern may be flaws. You might be able to adjust it or fix it. But that will require some work. If the work isn't worth it, you should drop it. If you do manage to reconcile the flaws, you have probably gained, along the way, greater insight into the pattern and the phenomenon it represents.

Finally, you need to make a sincere attempt to disprove what you believe about the pattern. Ask yourself what could be true that would disprove the pattern or what thing might happen in the future to dispute it. As time goes by, if you are sincerely trying to find evidence that the pattern does not work and you fail to, it is probably a pretty good pattern.